Next weeks waiver wire: DeVante Parker, Juwan Johnson, more players to add now before the Wee

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Cover 7 | Saturday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Saturday, John Laghezza uses a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today.

Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy football statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do next week (Really proud to help readers add Demario Douglas, to go along with Rashee Rice and Josh Downs, several weeks before the public — chalk another up for the good guys).

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Quarterback

Available QBs With +36.0 Dropbacks Per Game (Past Three Weeks)

Available QBs With +3.5 Deep Attempts Per Game (Past Three Weeks)

  • Jordan Love, GB — 4.3 Deep Attempts Per Game
  • Will Levis, TEN — 4.3 Deep Attempts Per Game
  • Baker Mayfield, TB — 3.7 Deep Attempts Per Game
  • Geno Smith, SEA — 3.7 Deep Attempts Per Game
  • Aidan O’Connell, LV — 3.7 Deep Attempts Per Game

Available QBs With +0.05 Expected Points Added Per Attempt (Past Three Weeks)

  • Jordan Love, GB — 0.32 EPA/Attempt
  • Russell Wilson, DEN — 0.17 EPA/Attempt
  • Baker Mayfield, TB — 0.16 EPA/Attempt
  • Tommy DeVito, NYG — 0.16 EPA/Attempt
  • Geno Smith, SEA — 0.09 EPA/Attempt
  • Jake Browning, CIN — 0.09 EPA/Attempt

Quarterbacks are dropping like flies and having to replace impactful players like Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen on their Week 13 bye couldn’t have come at a worse time. As your friend, I won’t lie to you, it’s ugly as sin out there. Unfortunately for many of us, the only way forward is through… so here goes nothing. Get your bandana and comb your mustache — we’re going to back to Gardner Minshew again this weekend against the Titans. Let’s call last week’s QB13 finish on the back of a 250-0-1; 3-6-1 line against the Bucs a neutral outcome. This time, we’re going for the W. Indianapolis just lost star RB Jonathan Taylor to the IR, so an overall uptick in pass rate feels plausible. Then, we factor in how well Tennessee’s run defense has played the past three weeks, creating an absolute pass funnel for the opposition. The Titans lead the league in Def. Rush Success Rate (74.7%) to go with Top 3 ranks in Def. EPA/Rush (+0.25), Yards/Rush (3.1), and Yards Before Contact/Rush (0.27), all without allowing a single +20 yard carry. The result? A bottom 3 pass defense in regard to EPA/Dropback, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, we’re looking at you.

Week 13 QB Streams Ranked

  • Gardner Minshew — IND at TEN
  • Matthew Stafford — LAR vs SEA

    • Week 14 QB Streams Ranked

  • Gardner Minshew — IND at CIN
  • Desmond Ridder — ATL vs TB

    • Running Back

    Available RBs With +6.5 Touches Per Game (Past Three Weeks)

    Available RBs With +0.35 Fantasy Points Per Snap (min. 6 Touches; Past Three Weeks)

    • Ty Johnson, BUF — 0.68 Fantasy Points Per Snap
    • Salvon Ahmed, MIA — 0.60 Fantasy Points Per Snap
    • Samaje Perine, CIN — 0.58 Fantasy Points Per Snap
    • Rico Dowdle, DAL — 0.56 Fantasy Points Per Snap
    • Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 0.48 Fantasy Points Per Snap
    • Jeff Wilson, MIA — 0.45 Fantasy Points Per Snap
    • Royce Freeman, LAR — 0.36 Fantasy Points Per Snap

    Available RBs With +40% Touch Per Snap Rate (min. 6 Touches; Past Three Weeks)

    • Jeff Wilson, MIA — 56.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
    • Elijah Mitchell, SF — 48.8% Touch Per Snap Rate
    • Tank Bigsby, JAC — 44.8% Touch Per Snap Rate
    • Rico Dowdle, DAL — 41.9% Touch Per Snap Rate
    • Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN — 41.0% Touch Per Snap Rate
    • Royce Freeman, LAR — 39.5% Touch Per Snap Rate

    With playoff berths up for grabs, it’s every fantasy GM for themselves in a mad dash for the only emergency exit. Face it, there’s no magic answer on the running back waiver wire at this point in the season. So, the best thing any one of us can do is stack our bench with high-upside contingency RBs. Step one, immediately cut any backup QB/TE or fringe WR on your roster in favor of the highest theoretical ceiling. This one takes me back more than a decade to 2012, but I’m reminded of adding Chicago’s Khalil Bell entering the fantasy playoffs right before Matt Forte went down.  Bell eventually hung +20 points in back-to-back games as a $0 add and delivered the title home to papa. The point is that unlike WRs, who must earn targets, maximizing RB production is more about isolating opportunities. Position yourself in the best probabilistic scenario and let the chips fall as they may.

    In what’s likely a futile attempt to be everything to everyone all at once, I listed my top 20 handcuffs. If you find yourself jammed up, or even stacking assets while on the bye, just work your way down the list.

    UPDATE: Neither of Green Bay’s RBs have practiced yet this week with lower body injuries. Patrick Taylor is the only Packer remaining on the active roster with a touch this season and he’s available in more than 99% of fantasy football leagues according to Yahoo.

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    Top 20 Rest-Of-Season Contingency Running Backs

  • Elijah Mitchell, SF
  • Rico Dowdle, DAL
  • D’Ernest Johnson, JAC
  • Tyler Allgeier, ATL
  • Josh Kelley, LAC
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
  • Ty Johnson, BUF
  • Roschon Johnson, CHI
  • Samaje Perine, DEN
  • Kenny Gainwell, PHI
  • Antonio Gibson, WAS
  • Tyjae Spears, TEN
  • Michael Carter, ARI
  • Ty Chandler, MIN
  • Jeff Wilson, MIA
  • Patrick Taylor, GB
  • Zamir White, LV
  • Royce Freeman, LAR
  • Matt Breida, NYG
  • Trayveon Williams, CIN

    • Wide Receiver

    Available WRs With +35.0 Routes Run Per Game (Past Three Weeks)

    • Cedric Tillman, CLE — 40.7 Routes Run Per Game
    • Jalen Guyton, LAC — 39.5 Routes Run Per Game
    • Jonathan Mingo, CAR — 37.3 Routes Run Per Game
    • A.T. Perry, NO — 37.0 Routes Run Per Game
    • Terrace Marshall, CAR — 36.0 Routes Run Per Game
    • Alec Pierce, IND — 36.0 Routes Run Per Game

    Available WRs With +24.0% Target Per Route Run (min. 6 Targets; Past Three Weeks)

    • Austin Trammell, LAR— 30.0% Target Per Route Run
    • Sterling Shepard, NYG— 28.6% Target Per Route Run
    • Kalif Raymond, DET — 27.5% Target Per Route Run
    • Dontayvion Wicks, GB — 25.7% Target Per Route Run
    • Greg Dortch, ARI — 24.3% Target Per Route Run
    • Byron Pringle, WAS — 24.1% Target Per Route Run

    Available WRs With +0.35 Fantasy Points Per Route (min. 6 Targets; Past Three Weeks)

    • Dontayvion Wicks, GB — 0.58 Fantasy Points Per Route
    • Khalil Shakir, BUF — 0.57 Fantasy Points Per Route
    • Dyami Brown, WAS — 0.43 Fantasy Points Per Route
    • Michael Gallup, DAL — 0.41 Fantasy Points Per Route
    • Darius Slayton, NYG — 0.40 Fantasy Points Per Route
    • Greg Dortch, ARI — 0.36 Fantasy Points Per Route

    Keep in mind the dwindling supply of viable pass-catchers and please don’t think less of me for this recommendation. A combination of hubris and disarray tanked the Patriots’ season roughly two months ago, but someone had to get the ball and Demario Douglas managed to thrive. Unfortunately, the rookie standout suffered a concussion in last week’s game. Given the league’s recent track record regarding protocol, I honestly doubt he suits up this weekend. Enter veteran DeVante Parker (sigh), who led all Patriots save Douglas in Snaps (51), Routes (30), Targets (5), Receptions (3), Receiving Yards (42), and Fantasy Points/Target (0.84) at NYG. So again, someone has to get the ball… right? I’m not projecting some slate-breaking performance, but the matchup is certainly in place against a leaky Chargers pass defense that’s bottom 5 on the season in Def. EPA/Dropback (-0.12), Opposing Passer Rating (98.7), Completions/Game (25.7), Passing Yards/Game (280.0), Yards/Reception (11.8), +20 Yard Completions (44), and FAN PPG-WR (41.0).

    Tight End

    Available TEs With +70.0% Route Participation (Past Three Weeks)

    Available TEs Earning +4.0 Targets Per Game (Past Three Weeks)

    • Tanner Hudson, CIN — 5.3 Targets Per Game
    • Juwan Johnson, NO — 5.0 Targets Per Game
    • Tyler Conklin, NYJ — 5.0 Targets Per Game
    • Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN — 4.3 Targets Per Game
    • Cade Otton, TB — 4.0 Targets Per Game
    • Tyler Higbee, LAR — 4.0 Targets Per Game
    • Hayden Hurst, CAR — 4.0 Targets Per Game

    Available TEs With +30.0 Air Yards Per Game (Past Three Weeks)

    • Juwan Johnson, NO — 53.0 Air Yards Per Game
    • Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN — 36.7 Air Yards Per Game
    • Logan Thomas, WAS — 35.0 Air Yards Per Game
    • Hayden Hurst, CAR — 34.0 Air Yards Per Game

    I haven’t written up a TE in a month but desperate times call for desperate measures. The Saints just suffered an entire season’s worth of injuries to their wide receiver room in under 10 days. First, Michael Thomas hit the IR. Then Rashid Shaheed (groin), and Chris Olave (concussion) both left last week’s game and are doubtful to play vs DET. Juwan Johnson is nicely set up for an actual wide receiver’s workload this weekend after leading the team in every pass-catching category in the second half at Atlanta. His 18.0 Slot Routes/Game are fourth among all TEs, so the runway’s clear for maximum route participation. Securing the lion’s share of opportunities has to be worth something at the TE position, even if it’s on a less than stellar offensive unit.

    Top 10 Rest-Of-Season Available TEs Ranked

  • Juwan Johnson, NO
  • Isaiah Likely, BAL
  • Cole Kmet, CHI
  • Hunter Henry, NE
  • Cade Otton, TB 
  • Tanner Hudson, CIN
  • Michael Mayer, LV
  • Tucker Kraft, GB
  • Jonnu Smith, ATL
  • Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN

    •  (Photo of Juwan Johnson: Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

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